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Analyzing and Managing Risky Investments - Many DecisionTools techniques are implemented throughout the book, including Monte Carlo simulation, optimisation, optimisation with simulation, and decision trees. The book is full of discussions of how these techniques are applied to investment decisions. Concepts and examples discussed can be used directly with @RISK, Evolver, RISKOptimizer, and PrecisionTree. The book provides an excellent reference for those familiar with risk and optimisation concepts, by including detailed examples of actual applications to real world projects, from simple decisions to multibillion dollar international applications. Though the concepts and techniques discussed are applicable to and intended for any investment situation, examples include those from the petroleum industry. Those new to the subject discover enough information to understand the power of the modern approaches, with enough insight into the language and practice of risk to move on to more detailed texts. Managers responsible for designing and implementing investment decision processes in their organisation will find the lessons invaluable. HC, 485 pp. |
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@RISK Bank Credit Analysis - PAL No. 059, £37.50 Nersesian, Roy L. Get any 2 Nersesian workbooks for £60! Save £15! |
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Coping with Risk in Agriculture |
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Corporate Financial Risk Management Risk factors beyond management control may mean the difference between profitability and financial catastrophe. The book provides strategies for dealing with day to day uncertainties of commodity pricing, currency exchange rates, borrowing interest rates, and the weather. Detailed examples of project financing, new product development, and price and sales volume variations are used as illustrations. In most businesses risk analysis is assigned to specialists with advanced training and complex tools. Corporate Financial Risk Management opens up the field to anyone with moderate analysis and computer skills. The book culminates with a novel cost-benefit analysis technique for modelling swaps (a contracted price stabilisation technique) as well as the use of insurance as a substitute for swaps. The use and power of Palisade’s @RISK for Excel, RISKOptimizer, and BestFit applications are well demonstrated and documented. Written for anyone charged with analysing the economic opportunities and consequences associated with uncertain situations, Corporate Financial Risk Management provides readers with solid tactics, processes, and tools for analysing, managing, and profiting from financial risk. HC 223pp |
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Decision Making Under Uncertainty with RISKOptimizer |
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Decisions Involving Uncertainty: |
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Dynamic Scheduling with Microsoft Project 2003 This fully revised new edition of Eric Uyttewaal's best-selling book does more than describe the features of Microsoft Project. The author recommends certain features and argues against others - giving you a complete picture of how to use Microsoft Office Project 2003 to build a dynamic schedule that meets your need, not just once, but continuously. SC 575 pp. Key features: |
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Fully aligned with the PMBOK 2004 edition,
About the author: Eric Uyttewaal, PMP is Executive Director, Microsoft EPM Division, International Institute for Learning, Inc (www.iil.com)
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Effective Risk Management - Some Keys to Success According to Dr. Lawrence D. Pohlmann, in the January 2004 issue of International Council on Systems Engineering journal INSIGHT, “The greatly expanded content and added usability feature have effectively transformed the second edition into an advanced risk management handbook”. HC 554pp. About the author: Dr. Conrow is a risk management and project management consultant with 20+ years experience; on hardware-intensive, software-intensive, and mixed projects, with life cycle dollar ranges from several million dollars to many billion dollars. Dr. Conrow has served as a risk manager and mentor to risk managers on a number of programmes, and has held long-term risk management and project management assignments where he has been responsible for making risk management work on a variety of programmes. Click here for more information about Dr. Conrow's consulting services. |
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Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization |
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Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization II Like its predecessor, Financial Models II features years' worth of experience in setting up and solving complicated financial problems using Microsoft Excel and DecisionTools software. You will learn valuable analytical techniques that will help you get the most out of @RISK, Evolver, and Excel. A wide variety of financial examples are presented and solved step-by-step in over 65 chapters. This isn't a book of long-winded theoretical discussions. It's a practical, step-by-step guide that you can use immediately to build the models that you need! Click here to read more about Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization. |
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Wayne Winston Book Bundles PAL No. 067-081 |
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PAL No. 067-068-081 £90.00 - Save £20 Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization I Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization II Decision Making Under Uncertainty with RISKOptimizer |
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Financial Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Debt: |
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Introduction to Risk Analysis: A Systematic Approach to Science-Based Decision Making Written for safety and loss-control, environmental, and quality Authors Daniel M. Byrd, III, and C. Richard Cothern examine risk and the Chapters include discussions on functions, models, and uncertainties; About the Authors: Daniel M. Byrd, III, is President of Consultants in |
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Managing Risk in Organizations
About the Author: J. Davidson Frame is Dean of Academic Affairs at the University of Management and Technology (UMT) in Arlington, Virginia. Prior to joining UMT, he established the project management programme at George Washington University. He also served as director of the Project Management Certification Program at the Project Management Institute (PMI) and has served on PMI’s board of directors. Frame has authored more than forty articles and seven books. Managing Risk in Organizations provides a compendium of information, techniques and tools for managing risk. It is essential reading for new managers and corporate analysts who deal with uncertainty. |
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Practical Management Science: Spreadsheet Modeling “I am an Assistant Professor and review most of the new books that deal with OR/MS. None of those can even come close to the quality of this book.” — D. Cordova, San Juan, PR |
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Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis: Containing over 700 references, equations, and illustrations, and providing more than 100 theoretical and applied exercises, Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis is suitable for cost, quality, reliability, and industrial engineers; systems engineers; cost and operations research analysts; management scientists; project and production engineers; engineering managers; and an extraordinary text for upper-level undergraduate and graduate students in these disciplines. PAUL R. GARVEY is Chief Scientist for the Economic and Decision Analysis Center at The MITRE Corporation. He is the author of numerous technical papers, and book chapters, on cost uncertainty analysis and the application of decision theory methods to problems in risk management. |
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Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide |
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Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects, Second Edition - Probability is the language of uncertainty. Fortunately, a few basic concepts go a long way toward making better decisions. The evaluation calculations are straightforward, and many everyday problems can be solved with a hand calculator. Recently we have seen heightened interest in probabilistic techniques for all types of evaluations. Shorter business cycles and increasing competition are demanding better resource management. People are learning more about value creation and how to work with uncertainty. New and evolving project management and risk software such as @RISK for Project, @RISK for Excel, PrecisionTree, and RISKOptimizer greatly help in assessing and managing risks and opportunities. There are three major features of the decision analysis approach:
The benefits are improved accuracy in evaluations, risk characterisations, and clear communication. Decisions can be made faster and with more confidence. Many examples of applications of these concepts and the techniques of Monte Carlo simulation, decision trees, and optimisation are included in the book. The methods apply to all types of project decisions. Decision analysis provides the only logical, consistent way to incorporate judgments about risks and uncertainties into an analysis. Thus, when the uncertainties are significant, these techniques are the best route toward credible project decisions. Armed with this book and DecisionTools software, you'll be making better project decisions in no time! SC, 259 pp. About the Author: John Schuyler, a longtime DecisionTools user, trains and assists clients in risk and economic decision analysis and in project risk management. He established Decision Precision®, an independent training and consulting practice in 1988, focusing on project and corporate economic modelling and on decision policy. He has over 25 years of experience in economic evaluation, training, and management. His industry experience includes petroleum, mining, utilities, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, information technology, and government. Schuyler's short courses deal with strategy, design, resource, and capital investment decisions under uncertainty. He is associated with Oil & Gas Consultants International, for whom he has presented his three- to six-day courses over 150 times in 23 countries. |
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Simulation Modeling and Analysis |
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Simulation Modeling Using @RISK “Makes the use of spreadsheet simulation easy and applicable to many every-day business problems. [Winston] will clearly be one of those unique and very few academic leaders that transcend the large void between theoretical teaching and practical, real world, business applications.” — Five stars, Amazon.com |
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Statistical Distributions, 3rd Ed. |
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VBA for Modelers: Developing Decision Support Systems The first half of the book is a helpful primer, which covers the basics
Following the primer, you will learn how VBA and Excel can be used to create specific decision support applications based upon those found in the best-selling Practical Management Science, also available from
This book features a companion Web site that provides detailed explanations of the subprograms and related information, as well as a CD-ROM containing example programmes. |
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