How to make good decisions? ...With decision tools
Dr. Bart J.A. Willigers, Digital Energy Journal, February/March 2008
Palantir Solutions, a financials software company, held a decision analysis tools seminar in Aberdeen, UK last November. Professor Reidar Bratvold, one of the world’s foremost experts on the subject of decision analysis, gave a talk titled “Decision making in the Oil & Gas industry - A culture of mediocrity,” where he determined that Oil & Gas companies should embrace more probability-based and modern valuation techniques.

Project Cost Risk Analysis: The Risk Driver Approach Prioritizing Project Risks and Evaluating Risk Responses
By David T. Hulett, Keith Hornbacher, and Waylon T. Whitehead; Hulett Associates, LLC, 2008
This presentation outlines limitations of the traditional three-point estimate approach to quantitative risk analysis.
The authors introduce the Risk Driver method to cost risk analysis in projects. The approach uses @RISK, and a
sample spreadsheet model with risk registers is included so you can try it yourself. A simple refinery construction
example is included.

» Download sample spreadsheet model

More Than a Roll of the Dice
Alex Forrest, MiningNewsPremium.net, 10 January 2008
A MINING project's viability ultimately hinges on minimising risk. While doing this may not be as simple as analysing your chances at the tables in Vegas, the software available to help mining companies assess their project risk is becoming increasingly advanced. Alex Forrest looks at a leading risk management software provider.

Academics Tackle Epidemics
David Robson, Scientific Computing World, August/September 2007
A discussion of how modelling software is having an impact on monitoring the spread of global diseases. An example using @RISK to combat avian flu is included.

Neural Network Analysis Speeds Disease Risk Predictions
Ninad Patil, M.D., M.S. and Timothy J. Smith, R.Ph., Ph.D.,Scientific Computing, July 2007, pps 36-38
Researchers at the University of the Pacific’s Thomas J. Long School of Pharmacy and Health Sciences used Palisade’s NeuralTools to assist in the evaluation of both the impact of pathological processes and their implications for drug therapy.

Actuaries Excel: But What About Their Software?
Louise Pryor et al, General Insurance Convention, 26 September 2006
Independent survey of actuaries across North America and Europe revealed that @RISK is the third most widely used software by actuaries, after Microsoft Office and in-house reserves software.

Quantity and Quality
Nicholas Pratt, Banking and Technology, 1 July 2006
Palisade's Michael Rees discusses credit risk assessment in banking.

Neural Networks Software Crunches the Big Numbers
Mirek Janusz, Quality Digest, February 2006
Palisade's Mirek Janusz provides a summary of the methodology and applications of neural networks software, including Palisade's NeuralTools.

'Exotic' Programming Tools Go Mainstream
Peter Coffee, eWEEK, February 2006
I was looking for a software tool that was easy to use and would do forecasting based on complex parameters,’ said independent health care consultant Barb Tawney, who described to eWEEK Labs her use of NeuralTools from Palisade.
» Read summary case study.

Capital Budgeting: IT Project Portfolio Optimization Redux
Marcia Gulesian, Developer.com, 2006
This is the second in a series of articles that examines decision-making methods for the selection or rejection of individual projects throughout the project portfolio management process. These methods determine whether or not a given project (either proposed or in process) should be included in your next capital budget. The article features RISKOptimizer and @RISK for optimization under uncertainty.

Rational Outsourcing Decision in VoIP Projects
Marcia Gulesian, Developer.com, 2006
According to a recent Harvard Business School study, higher IT capability directly correlates with superior revenue growth. Nearly all IT managers (at more than 150 large enterprises) surveyed for the study said they plan to increase outsourcing, particularly in the areas of application development and IT infrastructure. This article features PrecisionTree to evaluate outsourcing decisions.

Capital Budgeting: Managing Efficient IT Project Portfolios
Marcia Gulesian, Developer.com, 2006
This is the first in a series of articles that will examine some of the most commonly used decision-making methods for the selection or rejection of individual projects throughout the project portfolio management process. These methods determine whether or not a given project (either proposed or in process) should be included in your next capital budget. The article features Evolver for optimization.

@RISK and BestFit Models Provide Insight on Biological Control Impact on Monarch Butterflies.
R. L. Koch et al pub: Biological Invasion, 2006
A quantitative risk assessment Study from the University of Minnesota.

Business Continuity Ask The Experts -
Interview with Palisade's Craig Ferri
Business Continuity, 23 November 2005
Palisade Europe Managing Director Craig Ferri answers questions about business continuity risk in the Ask The Experts column.

If You Build It, Will They Come?
Lauren Barack, On Wall Street, June 2005
In this article, @RISK is used to illustrate how to plan for retirement more accurately using Monte Carlo simulation.
» Download sample model and graph referenced in this article.

Application of a Monte Carlo Simulation Method for
Predicting Voltage Regulation on Low-voltage Networks
Power Systems IEEE Transactions, February 2005, Vol 20, Issue 1
Estimating voltage regulation on Low-Voltage (LV) networks is "bread and butter" work for many electricity network engineers. This paper summarizes research work on Monte Carlo modeling of residential electricity demand and its application to LV regulation problems.

Mortgage Lending Risk Analysis
by Dr. Michael Rees of Palisade Corp, Risk Magazine, 2004,
Palisade's Dr. Michael Rees demonstrates a practical example of how, using @RISK, it's possible to analyze house lending.

Using @RISK to Calculate Portfolio Performance
by George Birbilis and Gautam Mitra, CARISMA Centre for the Analysis of Risk and Optimisation Modelling Applications, Brunel University, UK, Risk International Yearbook 2003, 15 August 2003
This article demonstrates how a simulation approach using @RISK can be used as a simple but effective financial planning tool.

Health and Economic Impact of Posttranfusion Hepatitis B
Arturo Pereira, Transfustion, Vol 43, February 2003
@RISK is used to evaluate the effectiveness of new HBsAG assays in donor testing in order to reduce the risk of posttransfusion hepatitis B tranmission.
» Read summary case study.

 

More Articles

 

Practical Calculation of Expected and Unexpected Losses in Operational Risk by Simulation Methods

Fast and Robust Monte Carlo CDO Sensitivities and their Efficient Object Oriented Implementation
    DefaultRisk.com, May 2005

Capabilities of Neural Network as Software Model-Builder

Project Portfolio Management at Novartis Pharma
     A Case Study from London Business School using @RISK, PrecisionTree, and RISKOptimizer

Planning for Retirement and @RISK

Financial Analyses with DecisionTools

Texaco vs. Pennzoil: Modeling a Settlement in PrecisionTree

Schedule Risk Analysis Simplified

When CAPM Is Not Reliable Anymore, Simulation and Optimization Tools Will Get the Job Done
     Guilherme Marques Calôba, et. al., 2004

The Economics of Litigation
     Samson Vermont, 2001

Combining Preference Theory and CAPM Efficient Frontier: Towards and Optimum Portfolio of Upstream Projects
     Regis da Rocha Motta et. al.

Investment and Risk Analysis Applied to the Petroleum Industry
     Regis da Rocha Motta et. al.

Estimating the Cost of Preventive Services in Mental Health and Substance Abuse Under Managed Care
     Substance Abuse and Mental Health Administration, Department
     of Health and Human Services, December 2001

A Better Way to Size Up Your Nest Egg: Monte Carlo Models Simulate All Kinds of Scenarios,
     BusinessWeek, January 22, 2001

Using Monte Carlo Simulation for Pavement Cost Analysis
     Public Roads Magazine, November/December 2000

Why Plain Old Spreadsheets Are Not Enough (RISKOptimizer)
     PCWeek, March 1999

Palisade Takes Add-In Science to New Heights (@RISK, BestFit)
     Derivatives Strategy, August 1996

Modeling a European Put Option (@RISK)
     Sam O. Sugiyama & Jeffrey Chow

Operational Research Software (BestFit)
     European Journal of Operational Research